Bitcoin’s strong bull run may be approaching its end, according to a new analysis shared by crypto strategist Xanrox.According to a recent analysis shared on TradingView, the analyst cautioned that Bitcoin could be on the verge of a sharp downturn, forecasting a potential 50% drop that might pull its value down to nearly $60,000. This comes at a time when Bitcoin has been trading quietly above the $118,000 level, with neither a breakout nor a breakdown in sight, leaving investors uncertain about the next direction.
Xanrox pointed to technical signals indicating a possible market top, especially after Bitcoin recently reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and tested a long-term trendline that connects major cycle peaks from 2017, 2021, and now 2025. The most recent interaction with this trendline coincided with Bitcoin’s new all-time high of $122,800, which the analyst believes may mark the peak of the ongoing bull cycle. He also noted that the Elliott Wave structure has completed both the fifth wave of a rising wedge pattern and a larger fifth wave of a broader impulse move, both of which often precede corrective phases in the market.
Based on historical price action, Xanrox believes Bitcoin may follow the same pattern seen in previous cycles, where price crashes of 84% and 77% occurred after similar technical signals in 2017 and 2021. If the same trend plays out, a 50% correction to the $60,000 level could materialize by 2026. He also pointed out that the months of August and September have historically brought increased selling pressure to the crypto market. While some traders may look for further confirmation, such as a break below the 50-week moving average, Xanrox believes the top has already formed. He added that large investors and institutions often track the 20, 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages for directional clues.
Despite this bearish forecast, many analysts and traders remain optimistic. The crypto fear and greed index continues to show “greed,” and several experts argue that Bitcoin’s current price range between $117,000 and $119,000 is forming a strong base for a move higher. Some even expect a continuation toward $130,000 and beyond. Supporters of the bullish case point to the firm hold above the $118,000 mark, low selling volume, and strength in altcoins like Ethereum as signals that Bitcoin still has room to grow in the current cycle. Whether the market is nearing a peak or simply consolidating for another leg upward remains a key debate in the crypto space.
Related read: https://techbonafide.com/bitcoin-hits-record-123400-amid-etf-inflows/
